Tony Abbott Will Not Hurt Labor

Ferocity won't win anything. We now have a conciliatory government. Despite hopes by Tony Abbott to end the governing coalition, this shall not happen. Withdrawing from a legally drawn up agreement to pair speaker and deputy speaker votes shows he is an opportunist. When he thought he would gain government with support of the independents he was all for the agreement. Now he hopes to derail the Government at its first step. If one of the governing independents votes with the opposition on an issue that particular legislation will not get through. That is all it means. Julia Gillard has already given warning that some things will not pass.

A loss by one vote is the same as a loss by fifty votes. During the last government the Opposition with the help of the Greens knocked back the Emissions Trading Scheme. The Government didn't change however. Now the Greens want an EMS at the first opportunity. It's no wonder when they realized how silly it was to end the first scheme. Any scheme is better than none.

The bets are on that Tony Abbott will lose his cool during the first term of government when things do not go his way. How he has held himself together so far is a miracle. He is bound to insult the independents with a personal remark. The independents have a point to prove - this government is theirs and they know it. Tony Abbott will not gain much by insulting Labor parliamentarians. They do not have the real power. With all the compromises Labor will make this will disarm the Opposition. In reality it must attack the independents. This is the only hope of bringing the Government down. The independents will not want this to happen, at just about any cost. They have already thrown away the electorate support they had from nominal Opposition voters.

Tony Abbott will follow in Peter Costello's footsteps and be a prime ministerial contender who could not make the final step. It will be a long time before the next election. With the ongoing frustration other Opposition members could spit the dummy as well. Christopher Pyne was ranting with enjoyment when the Debate was turned down. He was notably drawn and quiet when the election result became clear. And the lady who put the knife in Malcolm Turnbull's back is still there spinning her web - nasty as ever. When Tony Abbot was first made leader and jokes were made in the House about his flirtations with Julia Gillard she did mouth something quite objectionable.

The real mystery is will mister nice guy Joe Hockey ever by prime minister. Now there is someone every mother would like as a son, and probably vote for.

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Andrew Wilkie Is Mad to Want a Tougher Mining Tax

Andrew Wilkie the Independent who gave his support to the Labor Government is quite mad in trying to force a tougher mining tax on the country. He obviously heard the Green leader Senator Bob Brown say the tax should be higher. But Andrew Wilkie does not do his sums well. The Labor Government can pass legislation without his vote. It has two votes to spare under the Deputy Speaker no vote system. While not supporting the tax in its present form Andrew Wilkie would probably abstain. The problem for Labor is that Tony Windsor has assumed that the mining tax will be reviewed at the tax summit next year. Treasurer Wayne Swan obviously doesn't have a choice. The tax will have to be reviewed.

What hasn't been discussed is whether the mining tax will be passed by the Senate. The Labor Party needs the support of all five Greens the Independent and the Family First Senators to get the new tax through. However, if the tax is held back until next year's tax summit Labor will only need the Greens. Bob Brown could demand a tougher, wider tax. Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor probably won't accept that. While Tony Windsor voiced his support for the tax while making up his mind after the election he would prefer changes that make for a somewhat lighter tax.

Problems surely lay ahead for the current government. Prime Minister Julia Gillard will consult all parties before introducing contentious legislation there is no doubt. She is a natural negotiator, far more so than Tony Abbott. Whether Labor can put up with the ongoing "wishful talking" by the Opposition for the Government to fail is another issue. Since the election some Blogs and newspapers have become emotional when writing about the way the present government came about. Much is being said that will be regretted later. The argument between Bob Brown and the The Australian is a case in point. Surely The Australian editorial about destroying the Greens is pure emotion. The article is clearly wrong in saying that neither Bob Hawke nor Paul Keating would have entered the new governmental alliance. They would have agreed to it out of necessity.

Australia is heading in a new direction. Time will tell if the bush gets more money and the wants of the minority win out over the prerogatives of the majority.

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We Have the Government We Deserve

Well we have a government. There could be shaky times ahead but it seems the independents did the rational thing. Supporting the coalition would have given them only a one vote working majority. It was assumed all three independents would go one way. With the two independents Labor has two votes in hand under the new agreed system with Bob Katter voting against the government. Bob Katter is a real National Party person - no ifs no buts. He would have known what the others were going to do. For all his talking his electorate got nothing. He obviously knew which way he would fall all along. It was all show.

Ironically, the Coalition has given Labor an extra vote by having a member of the opposition as deputy speaker with no voting power. Tony Abbott was not thinking clearly when he made that decision. Not giving in to this could have swung the two independents the other way. The Western Australian National must have had an effect. He said he would not block supply for the Coalition. His decision to sit on the cross bench gave the impression that he was not fully supportive though.

After the treasury analysed the Coalition election promises, throwing more money at the independents had no effect. A brand new hospital was clearly far too much for the Tasmanian representative. It seems Tony Abbott had lost credibility. His behavior in the election came back to haunt him. Something fishy was about when his promises were not costed initially.

The real "swinger" was the National Broadband Network. If the Coalition had just said it would review the NBN it would have won office without this fiasco. You can sometimes be too stubborn for your own good. Many have said if labor had not brought the mining tax in the coalition would have done so. It was like the GST - a Labor idea adopted by the coalition. Pity Tony Abbott was not more like John Howard who saw some good in Labor concepts.

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