Tampilkan postingan dengan label debt. Tampilkan semua postingan
Tampilkan postingan dengan label debt. Tampilkan semua postingan

Senin, 05 Juli 2010

Who Do We Owe Money To?

Everyone is in debt. That seems to be the case. But if we all owe money to whom are we indebted? Who are these fat cats who spend their days on the beach having cool drinks brought to them while they while away the time sunbathing?

If truth be known the money does not actually exist. It has been created in the books of independent and national banks. In centuries passed the local blacksmith acted as the bank. Gold, silver and promissory notes were left in his safe. He soon became aware that the "goods" left for safe keeping would not be taken out by the owner for a very long time, if ever. For storing the valuable minerals and promissory notes he gave promissory notes in return. This meant that he could create money. He could also give loans, a large part of which would return directly back because the debtor opened a new account.

When large private banks started, governments gave an assurance that a run on an institution would be protected by public money. We have seen how silly this concept has proved to be by the US and European governments bailing out private banks. Private debt has become public debt. This on top of the mushrooming private debt worldwide.

Much of Western debt is owed to China which buys US bonds. It is a mistake to believe that it wants the money back any time soon. If it did the world economy would grind to a halt. Then, who would buy its exports?

The real problem is economics. This social science is just theory. There are complicated models that do not apply to the real world, with demand and supply curves, meeting long term average costs and so on. Real business doesn't operate that way. There is not one model for cost plus 10 or 20 percent, or get it cheap and sell high until demand stops then throw the stuff out. That is how business really runs. Note the supermarkets, they don't cut the price of everything that doesn't sell. They would rather throw it away than sell it. After all, they make the supplier take the loss. Economic advisers have not helped one government to balance the books. And the advice they are giving now to raise taxes and cut spending will surely prolong the recession. Cutting debt is like turning the water tap down - someone has to go without! Let's be honest much of this debt will never be paid. It doesn't really exist.
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Jumat, 16 April 2010

Greece Can Spend Its Way Out of Trouble

It is taught in economics at university that the way to get rid of debt is to print money. Though some will pull back in shock horror at the thought this is actually true. Keynesian theory dictates that a high spending fiscal policy, i.e., spending money that a country doesn't have, creates employment, improves GDP and wipes away debt.

A comparison can be made between the US debt after WWII and Greece's debt today. The US then owed 122 percent of its GDP to other countries. Greece owes 113 percent. The US printed money and spent. By 1956 the US debt was still the same but repayments could be sustained due to higher GDP. In fact the US ran trading surpluses during this period.

The alternative action for Greece is to cut back on spending, in other words cut services such as hospitals, the police and new roads. It is easy for people in other countries to say this is what they have to do. If you are Greek, however, life is going to be oppressive for decades. Many Greeks could consider opting out of paying the debt by moving to other European countries. They can do this because they have free movement in the EC. I predict that if spending is cut drastically then emigration will increase to a flood. Life is better on the other side of the fence.

Spending cuts have a bad side effect: it reduces buying power thus causing deflation. Note, the Great Depression was caused by deflation. There will be unemployment queues stretching for blocks. To believe otherwise is an error. Some believe that falling prices allows people to buy more - but paychecks fall even faster and stop completely for some. Rarely does deflation happen, but when it does it means big trouble. Goods remain on shop shelves because people have low, or no income. How can real wages remain high when business income is falling due to low prices?

Unfortunately the US has an advantage that Greece does not have: the US dollar is seen to be the world currency, like a gold standard. Though the US currently prints money and dishes it out worldwide especially where its troops are operating, the value of the dollar remains high.
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