Tampilkan postingan dengan label gold. Tampilkan semua postingan
Tampilkan postingan dengan label gold. Tampilkan semua postingan

Jumat, 24 Desember 2010

The Days of the US Dollar as World Currency Are Numbered

With the US printing paper dollars by the truckload the American currency cannot remain the world's gold standard. Can something akin to gold be created to act as the measure of value for world trade? China's call for a new stand alone currency for international trade will not work. The difficulties of the Euro has highlighted this. Putting the world's "strong" currencies in a pot with gold then calculating out a value for transactions is also problematical. Wouldn't this be a partial return to the gold standard?

The gold standard worked for a long time mainly because is was a scarce commodity and new finds of the mineral were increasing the gold "pot" at about the same rate as the world growth in trade. A new gold standard would probably not work now because there would be a rush to invest in gold companies which could flood the market.

This would not solve the problem of nations openly trying to weaken their currency to gain a market edge. Quantitative easy by the US is a case in point. The US Treasury bought up securities to increase the money supply. This could still be done with a gold standard.

As time passes people will lose confidence in the US dollar. This is inevitable as the US tries to pull the economy out of recession. China's dominance in low-cost labor industries will not last, but things will not improve for the US as cheap-labor industries move to other less-developed Asian countries. The US cannot turn the clock back. Like Britain, it has had its day in the industrial limelight.

The sun will truly set on US hegemony when the national deficit will finally have to be paid. Many countries beside the US will be in trouble then, particularly the ones issuing bonds in US dollars.
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Senin, 05 Juli 2010

Who Do We Owe Money To?

Everyone is in debt. That seems to be the case. But if we all owe money to whom are we indebted? Who are these fat cats who spend their days on the beach having cool drinks brought to them while they while away the time sunbathing?

If truth be known the money does not actually exist. It has been created in the books of independent and national banks. In centuries passed the local blacksmith acted as the bank. Gold, silver and promissory notes were left in his safe. He soon became aware that the "goods" left for safe keeping would not be taken out by the owner for a very long time, if ever. For storing the valuable minerals and promissory notes he gave promissory notes in return. This meant that he could create money. He could also give loans, a large part of which would return directly back because the debtor opened a new account.

When large private banks started, governments gave an assurance that a run on an institution would be protected by public money. We have seen how silly this concept has proved to be by the US and European governments bailing out private banks. Private debt has become public debt. This on top of the mushrooming private debt worldwide.

Much of Western debt is owed to China which buys US bonds. It is a mistake to believe that it wants the money back any time soon. If it did the world economy would grind to a halt. Then, who would buy its exports?

The real problem is economics. This social science is just theory. There are complicated models that do not apply to the real world, with demand and supply curves, meeting long term average costs and so on. Real business doesn't operate that way. There is not one model for cost plus 10 or 20 percent, or get it cheap and sell high until demand stops then throw the stuff out. That is how business really runs. Note the supermarkets, they don't cut the price of everything that doesn't sell. They would rather throw it away than sell it. After all, they make the supplier take the loss. Economic advisers have not helped one government to balance the books. And the advice they are giving now to raise taxes and cut spending will surely prolong the recession. Cutting debt is like turning the water tap down - someone has to go without! Let's be honest much of this debt will never be paid. It doesn't really exist.
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