Tampilkan postingan dengan label election. Tampilkan semua postingan
Tampilkan postingan dengan label election. Tampilkan semua postingan

Jumat, 03 September 2010

Australian Voters Were Not Ambivalent

During the election Bob Katter said the best thing that could happen would be a hung parliament. He got what he wanted. Time will tell if he backs a Labor government which is the rational thing to do considering support from the "independent" trio would give Labor a working majority of three. Holding up a Coalition government would give only a one vote majority for them. Note the Speaker for the most part does not actually vote. A one vote majority will not hold the course for long. If the independents have not been putting on a show, with their minds already made up from the beginning, then they have no real choice but to back Labor. Choosing the Coalition will show them to be false prophets.

Some pundits have said that Australian voters were ambivalent about both parties. Labor's mismanagement of the economic stimulus, however, was the major factor in the present deadlock. Most Australians want the National Broadband Network. They did not want Labor to lose outright. The mining tax was really a non-factor. People could take it or leave it. All the other issues pushed voters this way and that but did not affect the outcome.

A lack of vision is also put forward by some pundits. Visionaries like Bob Hawke held power mainly due to their strong personality not to great visionary change. Indeed, voters do not like too much change too quickly. The two leaders do not have strong personalities but not having a vision was irrelevant. Green candidates benefitted most from the protest vote. They should bask in their glory, because the vote for them will not be as high as it was ever again.

Campaigning in marginal electorates was to be expected due to the close polling results in the election. Safe electorates were not promised much so it was also said that consumer-driven voting was the main factor. This is only a new term for old fashioned hip-pocket voting. Labor still supports the working "man" and the conservative parties still lean toward big business. Tony Abbot's pet project, maternity leave, not supported by hardly any of his colleges was an oddity of the campaign.

Overall, Labor's campaign did have vision. A great new tax and national "medicare" were bold new ideas. In summary two things were important: Labors mismanagement and the NBN. To a degree they cancelled each other out.
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Kamis, 19 Agustus 2010

Coalition Wins

Election day is here and it looks like a change of government. If both parties get 50 per cent of the vote the Coalition will win because of the "smell" coming from the removal of Kevin Rudd. It may look like a tie, but Labor will lose two or three marginal seats by a handful of votes due to the Rudd knee-jerk action. Indeed, Julia Gillard will become the shortest reigning Prime Minister in Australia's history. This result will see her rethink her future. Personally, I can't see her staying around after the humiliation.

A loss for Labor will be a new beginning. They will have to look for new, younger leaders. When Wayne Swan takes the helm he will be the last of the old school left. Three years on the outer will see the end of him. No one else stands out with potential leadership qualities. Indeed, the Coalition is in the same boat. If Abbott goes who is to lead?

A new Coalition government has an identity problem. Will it stay on the far right after being pushed there by the "old fogies" of the team, or will it move back to the center? Tony Abbot is definitely on the right. He has the attitude of the present British Government: just balance the books; nothing needs to be done; stuff the poor. It won't be long before Abbott gets on with his pet issue - reorganizing industrial relations. Yes, the unions are in for a hard time as changes are made to workplace laws. Promises in an election are just that - promises.

P.S. Pity the NBN was scrapped. It condemns Australia to being a backwater in the world.
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Sabtu, 17 Juli 2010

Processing Offshore Is No Answer

What is the point of processing people offshore? This won't solve the problem of refugees choosing to get in a boat and head for Australia. A delay has helped. It has put off some from applying. For them, going home seems to be the only choice.

The goal should be getting the message through to Afghans, Tamils and Africans that Australia will not take over a certain number of refugees each year. Northern European countries are doing this. They are ignoring calls from Mediterranean countries who are being flooded by new arrivals for other nations to take some. Southern countries have certainly got the message even if refugees haven't. The Australian Government should be strong enough even if it upsets the UN to make a yearly refugee limit. After all, this is what used to be done by all countries in regard to people who wanted to stay.

Something new is needed. It is ironic how similar Julia Gillard's Timor solution is to John Howard's Pacific solution. And that didn't work. The number of new arrivals actually increased with temporary visas. Many who were given money to go home returned a year later.

The election is an opportunity for a bold party to say that is enough, and to put up the barriers. When the limit is reached and announced to the world the influx will cease.
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